2022年北美房地产投资趋势EMERGING TRENDS IN 2022 United States l Canada

房产趋势 Joymay加乐美出国 2023-08-19

Where will all the real-estate capital go?

After a pandemic-induced pause in mid-2020, real estate deal-making is back—with a vengeance. Investment cash, domestic and foreign, is surging into US real estate. Several factors are driving this demand, including low interest rates and attractive returns relative to risk. Institutional investors who need to keep their portfolios of stocks and other assets in balance, for example, often turn to real estate when stock values fluctuate, throwing portfolio concentrations out of whack.

Where’s all that money going? No surprise that buyers are snapping up industrial assets and housing, both single- and multifamily, a trend that hasn’t wavered in a decade. And we’re seeing a scramble for alternative properties like data centers, self-storage facilities and studio space to produce streaming content and student housing. More investors are plowing capital into these properties because they offer generally higher returns, often at no greater risk.

Is a bubble coming? Only if investors lose their discipline. Fund managers raised huge amounts of cash to pick off a predicted wave of distressed and foreclosed properties as the pandemic raged. But those predictions fell flat. Market fundamentals held up remarkably well. Lenders cut borrowers a lot of slack — and that paid off for the most part. Most investors and lenders maintained restraint during the pandemic, limiting leverage and generally not overbuilding.

The big question: Will that discipline last, especially as more investors turn their capital toward real estate?

房地产资本将何去何从？

在 2020 年中期大流行引起的停顿之后，房地产交易又卷土重来。国内外的投资现金正在涌入美国房地产市场。有几个因素推动了这种需求，包括低利率和相对于风险的有吸引力的回报。例如，需要保持股票和其他资产投资组合平衡的机构投资者经常在股票价值波动时转向房地产，从而使投资组合的集中度失控。

这么多钱去哪里了？毫不奇怪，买家正在抢购工业资产和住房，无论是单户还是多户，这一趋势十年来从未动摇。我们看到了对数据中心、自助存储设施和工作室空间等替代资产的争夺，以制作流媒体内容和学生宿舍。越来越多的投资者将资金投入到这些房产中，因为它们通常提供更高的回报，通常没有更大的风险。

泡沫要来了吗？只有当投资者失去纪律时。随着大流行的肆虐，基金经理筹集了大量现金，以应对预计会出现的一波不良和止赎房产。但这些预测都落空了。市场基本面非常好。贷方减少了借款人的大量闲置——这在很大程度上得到了回报。大多数投资者和贷方在大流行期间保持克制，限制杠杆作用，一般不会过度建设。

最大的问题是：这种纪律会持续下去吗，尤其是当越来越多的投资者将资金转向房地产时？

The pandemic’s lopsided impact on real estate

Even though the pandemic has spared no state or city, its impact on US property markets and sectors now diverges in ways significantly different than in the last recovery. That divergence means that some sectors, like industrial properties, have barely paused because a surge in online spending spurred tenant demand. The same is true for multifamily properties, with tenant demand still increasing and rents back to record levels throughout much of the country.

Meanwhile, however, the pandemic accelerated the retail property sector’s long slide, with store closings and vacancies rising. The only exception is grocery-anchored centers, dollar stores and home improvement retailers, which are thriving. The office sector is, unsurprisingly, in the midst of a major reset—with vastly different outcomes based on location and whether a building has flexible layouts and better ventilation systems. Even so, vacancies are likely to keep rising.

Vacation travel is recovering, with hotels within an easy driving range of population centers appearing set to reap among the greatest benefits. But business and international travel may not return to pre-COVID-19 levels for years. That would take a toll on hotels, luxury retailing and upscale dining that’s often fueled by company expense accounts.

The pandemic magnified an ongoing shift away from expensive downtown markets and toward smaller, more affordable ones. All this means is businesses need to stay nimble. Uncertainty can be a curse, or an opportunity.

大流行对房地产的不平衡影响

尽管大流行没有放过任何一个州或城市，但它对美国房地产市场和行业的影响现在与上次复苏大不相同。这种差异意味着一些行业，比如工业地产，几乎没有停下来，因为在线支出的激增刺激了租户的需求。多户住宅也是如此，租户需求仍在增加，全国大部分地区的租金又回到了创纪录的水平。

然而，与此同时，大流行加速了零售房地产行业的长期下滑，门店关闭和空置率上升。唯一的例外是杂货店中心、一元店和家居装修零售商，它们正在蓬勃发展。不出所料，办公部门正处于重大重置之中——根据位置以及建筑物是否具有灵活的布局和更好的通风系统，结果大不相同。即便如此，职位空缺可能还会继续增加。

度假旅行正在复苏，人口中心的轻松驾驶范围内的酒店似乎将获得最大的收益。但商务和国际旅行可能多年都不会恢复到 COVID-19 之前的水平。这将对酒店、奢侈品零售和高档餐饮造成影响，而这通常是由公司费用账户推动的。大流行加剧了从昂贵的市中心市场转向更小、更实惠的市场的持续转变。所有这一切都意味着企业需要保持敏捷。不确定性可能是诅咒，也可能是机会。

Let’s look at the top ranked real estate markets for the year

remotely realized that they could beam into their meetings from 1,000 miles away just as easily as 10.

No wonder, then, that almost all of this year’s survey of top-ranked real estate markets are in faster growing southern and western regions and away from the coasts. The two top-rated metro areas in the Emerging Trends survey, Nashville and Raleigh/Durham, each have fewer than 2.5 million people.

But they are growing explosively. And they’ve shown impressive economic staying power even in a pandemic. They regained jobs lost in the downturn much faster than other cities. By year’s end, cities like Phoenix, Charlotte and Nashville are expected to regain nearly all lost jobs, while the US as a whole is projected to be down almost 2 percent.

Meanwhile, the large cities that dominated the list for years are now slipping. Several expensive markets, including Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., all failed to break into the top 10. Ratings for traditional investor favorites like San Francisco and Manhattan are tanking as high cost of living drives jobs and job-seekers to more favorable climes. Seattle was the last large or coastal metro area to top the list, in 2018.

让我们来看看今年排名最高的房地产市场

远程工作使人们意识到他们可以像 10 英里一样轻松地从 1,000 英里外进入他们的会议。因此，难怪今年对顶级房地产市场的调查几乎全部都在发展较快的南部和西部地区，远离沿海地区。新兴趋势调查中评分最高的两个都市区纳什维尔和罗利/达勒姆的人口均不到 250 万。

但它们正在爆炸性地增长。即使在大流行中，它们也表现出令人印象深刻的经济持久力。他们比其他城市更快地恢复了在经济低迷时期失去的工作。到年底，凤凰城、夏洛特和纳什维尔等城市预计将恢复几乎所有失去的工作岗位，而整个美国预计将减少近 2%。

与此同时，多年来在榜单上占据主导地位的大城市现在正在下滑。几个昂贵的市场，包括洛杉矶、旧金山和华盛顿特区，都未能进入前 10 名。旧金山和曼哈顿等传统投资者最爱的评级正在下滑，因为高昂的生活成本推动就业和求职者变得更加有利气候。西雅图是 2018 年最后一个上榜的大型或沿海都市区。

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